The Pirates suggested that Oviedo begin throwing a sinker because his four-seam fastball naturally sinks. I think thats in the ballpark. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and that's not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Kiner-Falefa had a slash line of .261/.314/.327 . Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. I was just saying the other day that there hasnt been a free agent whos so valuable in this particular waya combination of very good performance and youthsince A-Rod in 2000. Contract: 8 yr, $184M (2016-23) AAV: $23.0M. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR. The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population. It happens. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. FanGraphs Membership. His rookie year was off-the-charts good All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. FOX Sports - Rowan Kavner 1d. Heywards 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. Its no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500. For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. There are not enough players here to draw conclusions, but it might be worth looking into whether good, young defensive players age better overall as hitters. 2023 Updated In-Season Projections Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. "I've talked . The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. For a big man, he can run a little So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. These were the players remaining. ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. by Retrosheet. by Retrosheet. This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. by Retrosheet. So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. by Retrosheet. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. Their average WAR is below. Thats been fairly consistent. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Heywards main drawback, perhaps only drawback, as a player seeking more than $100 million is his lack of power. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. by Retrosheet. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. Forget about everything else. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Gavin Lux is likely . The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. The shift movement had already produced some . If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Maybe Heyward just belongs in that 110 120 range of wRC+. Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Meanwhile, the team is likely stuck with big contracts for the likes of B.J. As was the case with the offensive player-comps group, Heyward is more accomplished than almost all of the players on this list. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Heyward hasnt shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to 28.3 percent; the MLB average is 29-30 percent). Higgins over one inning. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. News; Wikipedia: . Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. Games. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .260/.335/.406 for a 96 wRC+ He seemed. Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. 2023 Pre-Season Projections All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. by Retrosheet. So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. Donate to FanGraphs. 12 years and 0 . Heres why. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. Then, showing off the kind of speed unexpected from a 6-foot-5, 250-pounder, Walker beat out a dribbler to third for an infield single. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. The Cubs released Heyward. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. Hes still really young First, there are questions as to whether Heyward is actually worth as much as the defensive metrics say he is. Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. Cavan Biggio will play half his games in the outfield. There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. Indiana State vs Bradley MVC Tournament odds, tips and betting trends. Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. Just ask Jason Heyward. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Ideally, we could look for players like Jason Heyward who are good offensively and defensively and see how those players performed. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. Heres a powerful triple to center. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. by Handedness. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. Look at Jason Heyward. Support FanGraphs. Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000.
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